Feel free to critique the method in the comments at the bottom (it is
theoretical after all). The fewer expletives the better.
If it weren’t for unreliability…
The ‘no unreliability races’ method
The most rudimentary system is to simply discount all races (including
qualifying) in which either driver has had a reliability issue. That means
their respective points from Australia, Canada, Great Britain, Germany,
Hungary, and Singapore all disappear.
Current points total: Hamilton 241 – Rosberg 238
Adjusted points total: Hamilton 161 – Rosberg 158
Amazingly, the margin between the two is exactly the same. Patently, it’s a
blunt instrument, so how about if you get even more hypothetical and do it
race-by-race?
Race-by-race method
Australian Grand Prix: Hamilton seemed set for a certain 25
points here, looking good in practice and taking pole position. Unlikely
Rosberg would have challenged him for the win had Hamilton not suffered from
a faulty cylinder. Hamilton 25 – Rosberg 18. (Actual points: Hamilton 0 –
Rosberg 25)
Malaysian Grand Prix: Unchanged. Hamilton 25 – Rosberg 18
Bahrain Grand Prix: Unchanged. Hamilton 25 – Rosberg 18
Chinese Grand Prix: Unchanged. Hamilton 25 – Rosberg 18
Spanish Grand Prix: Unchanged. Hamilton 25 – Rosberg 18
Monaco Grand Prix: Unchanged. Just because you think Rosberg may
or may not have deliberately brought out the yellow flags (I am inclined to
think he intentionally took massive risks all the way round the lap, knowing
full well what could happen), Hamilton still could have found a way to win
the race from second on the grid. Hamilton 18 – Rosberg 25
Canadian Grand Prix: Controversially, I am leaving the points
unchanged. If neither car had suffered an issue with their brakes, then it
could have been Rosberg who won from Hamilton (by the time the Briton got
through, the German was already cannily managing his brakes).
The fact is both cars had the same issue and one driver did what he was told
by the team – don’t push too hard, or get in the dirty air of another car –
and one didn’t. Hamilton had exactly the same opportunity as Rosberg to
bring the car home, and he didn’t. Hamilton 0 – Rosberg 18
Austrian Grand Prix: Unchanged, Hamilton simply messed up
in qualifying. Hamilton 18 – Rosberg 25
British Grand Prix: Although Hamilton was gaining, Rosberg had
been in the lead while forced to manage a gearbox problem. It is not certain
the Briton would have found his way through if Rosberg had not retired.
Therefore, in this hypothetical world: Hamilton 18 – Rosberg 25. (Actual
points: Hamilton 25 – Rosberg 0)
German Grand Prix: This is where it starts to become almost
impossible to measure, when qualifying breakdowns have to be taken into
consideration. On this occasion, Hamilton seemed a shoe in for pole
position, and the race win. His team-mate would have followed him home
second by my reckoning. Hamilton 25 – Rosberg 18 (Actual points: Hamilton 15
– Rosberg 25)
Hungarian Grand Prix: If his car had not caught fire in
qualifying, there is no guarantee Hamilton would have won the race from pole
position. Like Rosberg, he would have been caught out by the first safety car. Furthermore, if the German had not been stuck behind Hamilton, he may
have even gone on to win the race.
Plucking numbers out of the air somewhat, my adjusted points tally would be:
Hamilton 18 – Rosberg 12 (Actual points: Hamilton 15 – Rosberg 12)
Belgian Grand Prix: Of course there will be complaints, but the
collision between these two did not come through unreliability. Furthermore,
even though it was Hamilton’s corner, he could have left a little more room
if he wanted to make certain of finishing the race. The stewards are no
morons, and if given all the data they have access to they judged it to be a
racing incident, then that’s good enough for me. Hamilton 0 – Rosberg 18
Italian Grand Prix: Unchanged. Sorry conspiracy theorists.
Hamilton 25 – Rosberg 18
Singapore Grand Prix: Of course it would have been a good fight
between the two if Rosberg’s car had not failed before the race began, but
Hamilton seemed to have the upper hand all weekend. It is safe to say he
would have led home a one-two. Hamilton 25 – Rosberg 18 (Actual points:
Hamilton 25 – Rosberg 18)
Current points total: Hamilton 241 – Rosberg 238
Adjusted points total: Hamilton 272 – Rosberg 267
What do you know, the hypothetical margin is only two points bigger than it is
in real life. Hamilton has been totally robbed of an enormous championship
lead due to unreliability? I am not so sure. Argue your alternative case in
the comments below.
N.B. ** One point to make: in all of these hypothetical situations the
points from the Belgian Grand Prix, when the pair collided, remain the same.
The stewards judged it to be a racing incident, Rosberg was in my view only
marginally to blame, so it does not make sense to adjust points for their
accident. Furthermore, you could argue they would have crashed in Bahrain
had it not been for some rapid avoiding action by the German… **
– Lewis Hamilton wins Singapore GP and takes lead in
driver’s championship
– Singapore GP: Radio
Gaga is back plus four other things we learned
– Fortune favours Hamilton as Rosberg’s Mercedes lets
him down