So far, the two drivers have broadly shown the qualities we expected all the
way back in Australia, expect that Nico Rosberg has shown himself to be even
more capable than everyone thought.
Hamilton: the quicker man, unbelievable at coming through the field or
defending a lead, but more emotional and error-prone. Rosberg: far from a
Steady Eddy, but lacking the ultimate speed of his rival, phenomenally
consistent and totally unflappable under private or public pressure.
Logic would tell you that, in the end, Hamilton, the faster driver, would
prevail, if he can begin to cut out those qualifying errors (perhaps the
most telling statistic is that when they have both finished, Hamilton has
been ahead on five out of eight occasions). Any more reliability problems
and he will struggle to bridge the 11-point deficit.
The most fascinating prospect is how devious the two are prepared to be in the
title run-in. This is where the back page stories will lie.
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Bernie is back…
If you had missed it, Bernie Ecclestone’s trial for bribery in Germany is
over. He emerged from it $100 million poorer but with his innocence intact
(the deal he struck with prosecutors made no assumption of guilt).
The 83-year-old expects to be back on F1’s board in no time. In essence, it’s
as you were for the Formula One supremo. This could have many interesting
consequences. There were numerous voices up and down the paddock who were
quietly preparing for life after Bernie.
They were not relishing it, but the sense of trepidation was outweighed by
what some felt would be a new dawn. Clearly, that was all rather premature.
Not that he needs to, but it will be intriguing to see if he makes any moves
to reassert his authority after a few months with his focus partially
elsewhere.
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Will Williams win?
Outside interference might finally become a factor in the Hamilton-Rosberg
duel. Williams have been threatening to win all year (many argued they
played it safe in Austria and missed an opportunity), but the high-speed
nature of Spa, and then Monza, presents by far their best opportunity.
Their car is not just fast in a straight line, it is incredibly efficient
which pays all sort of dividends (far too technical for this blog).
I will instead, let Valtteri Bottas, one of the stars of the season so far,
and Rob Smedley, do some of the explaining.
“I think in theory Spa and Monza should be the next really good ones for us,
maybe the best opportunities of the season,” said Bottas.
“But we need to aim to be strong in other places and we can’t just rely on our
good top speed and doing well at Spa and Monza.”
Smedley, the straight-talking Teesider, added: “Both of those tracks will suit
our car very well I would have thought – mainly due to the fact the power
sensitivity at those tracks is very high; every horsepower you have is worth
more there than at other tracks.
“The drag sensitivity – especially at Spa – is very high. And we know our car
is very strong in those areas.
N.B. A final note on Williams: the team have confirmed both of their drivers
for next season. If Bottas continues royally whipping Felipe Massa in the
next eight races, they might regret having jumped the gun so early.
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The Verstappen verdict
Max Verstappen’s career in Formula One could be over by the time he is 20. It
seems like a ridiculous proposition, but given his entry to the sport at
such a young age (17), and Red Bull’s propensity to jettison young talent
who they do not believe will make the grade (Jean-Eric Vergne, Jaime
Alguersuari, Sebastian Buemi), it is not totally implausible if the young
Dutchman struggles.
It made it all the more interesting therefore that Verstappen snr. said
earlier this week: “Red Bull know how to treat young drivers”.
This aside, his promotion to motorsport’s premier category at such a young age
will doubtless be the subject of debate in Spa. Many of the current crop of
experienced drivers made their debuts young – Jenson Button (20); Fernando
Alonso (19); Kimi Raikkonen (20); Lewis Hamilton (22) – but Verstappen will
be a full two years younger than any of them when he makes his debut.
Alonso and others are often quick to criticise the “GP2 mentality” of some
young drivers: it will be interesting to see what they make of Max, a man
with only one season in Formula Three.
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The driver market taking shape
It is around this time in the season when teams have usually gathered enough
of an impression of whether they want to retain their drivers, and start
making serious moves to shop around. In 2012, not long after Spa, the story
of Lewis Hamilton’s move to Mercedes first broke.
Most of the attention for this year will be on McLaren. They’ve made lukewarm
noises about retaining both their drivers, but it is no secret they are
looking for a star name. If they are able to secure one – it seems unlikely
for 2015, given how poor the car has been the last two years – then it will
set all sorts of manoeuvring into action.
My prediction? Everything will stay the same. Jenson Button and Kevin
Magnussen will get another year each, Fernando Alonso will stay at Ferrari,
and we will end up with a fairly dreary silly season. Could be proved
horribly wrong, though.