* Given the “hilarious” unreliability Button has predicted, the usual
stop-start nature of winter testing could be multiplied dramatically given
the new cars. Pretty much every time someone stops on track in testing they
red flag the session, so expect to see a lot of that in Jerez.
Not good for the teams, but good for sport live bloggers desperate for a
toilet break.
2) Sandbagging/showboating
Even though this is the first time we will see all the cars run in the same
conditions, that’s not to say we will leave Jerez with a particularly clear
idea on the pecking order. For instance, last year at the first test McLaren
incorrectly ran a part of the suspension, which (illegally) gave them quite
good pace, but look how that turned out.
Red Bull are famous for keeping their cards close to their chest, even in
Friday practice at race weekends, so expect more of the same as they focus
on mileage and reliability, rather than outright pace.
Equally, there are always a few teams – perhaps those eager to secure a little
bit of last minute sponsorship, or who have a big sponsor at the test in
Jerez – who engage a little bit of showboating to grab some of the
headlines. Sadly, the first test is just that: testing, and for a full idea
of the true pecking order we will have to be patient and wait until
qualifying in Melbourne, in March.
3) Mercedes walking away with it?
Despite everything just said in point two, the paddock has been awash with
speculation that Mercedes
could be the dominant force in Formula One in 2014 (some have gone as far to
say they think Lewis
Hamilton and Nico Rosberg will walk away with it, turning the title
into a straight battle between themselves).
Frankly, no-one really knows where they are, but it would make sense for
Mercedes to leave the test in Jerez appearing as frontrunners for the season
– they have invested hugely in some of the best technical brains in the
sport.
A very short clip of Mercedes running their 2014 car at Silverstone
Unlike most of the teams – with the exception of Ferrari and to some degrees
Red Bull – they have also had the chance to develop their 2014 chassis in
conjunction with the new power unit. This has tremendous advantages, in
terms of how they are able to package the car around the engine, whereas
customer teams will have had much less of an opportunity to do that.
Although it’s impossible to tell, let’s put it this way: if Mercedes are
clearly on top in Jerez, as far as it is possible to tell, no-one in the
paddock will be all that surprised.
4) The mood at McLaren
Given recent goings on inside McLaren, it is obvious Whitmarsh will not be
involved with the first test in Jerez (he was not even mentioned in the
car’s launch), so as usual Sam Michael will take charge. Ron Dennis recently
regained control of the Formula One operation, replacing Whitmarsh as CEO,
and there will be further announcements on the leadership of the team next
month, with former Lotus boss Eric Boullier poised to make the move from
Enstone to Woking.
RETURN: Ron Dennis
Aside from the managerial side, McLaren desperately need a good season, and
after their aforementioned calamities at the first test in 2013, a good few
days of running, in which they show some competitive pace, would certainly
calm the nerves of everyone back at base. Whether rookie Kevin Magnussen
appears able to match Button is also something to watch out for.
5) Shredded tyres and shredded ears?
On almost every measure possible – performance, driver reception, publicity –
2013 was not a good year for Pirelli. Vocal complaints from many of the
teams, particularly Red Bull, as well as some incredibly dangerous tyre
blowouts at Silverstone, which prompted scathing criticism from the drivers,
left the Italian tyre manufacturer battered and bruised by the end of the
year.
By all accounts, Pirelli will want a quiet year in 2014, so good money is on
them producing more durable, conservative tyres. However, their plans could
be scuppered by the car’s new power units. Particularly coming out of slow
corners, the cars will produce significantly more torque than last year,
which could, if the drivers aren’t careful with their right feet, shred the
tyres to bits. Given last year it would seem unlikely Pirelli would allow
that to even be a possibility, but stranger things have happened.
If you listen to Bernie Ecclestone’s scaremongering, then you could also be of
the opinion that spectators’ ears will end up being shredded by the noise of
the new V6 turbos in 2014 as well.
Early releases of the engine note were not amazingly promising (Mercedes
published a video of how it might sound around a lap at Monza), but this was
before the whole power unit had been packaged with the gearbox and exhaust
in the car itself. As the video above from Caterham shows, the new V6s could
actually be a welcome change to the V8s of previous years. No-one expects
the engine noise to be a major problem, but the cars will certainly sound
different to in recent years.