The elephant in the room away from the track, which is possibly of even
greater significance than the rule changes this year, is the fate of Bernie
Ecclestone. He has ruled F1 for four decades with his unique brand of
deal-making, and many are fearful of what a future without him would look
like.
Aside from his 83 years, there is the small matter of a bribery trial in
Munich to navigate. Although he was found not guilty by a High Court judge
last month, he was branded an “untruthful” and “unreliable” witness. If he
is found to have bribed a German banker when his trial concludes in
September, it is difficult to imagine Ecclestone carrying on, not only
because of public pressure, but because Donald Mackenzie, chairman of CVC
Capital Partners, Formula One’s largest shareholder, said last November
Ecclestone would be fired if he was found guilty.
Even though the trial has been organised to suit Ecclestone’s schedule –
proceedings will take place on Tuesdays and Wednesdays, to allow him to be
at races – many in F1 will have one eye on the German courtroom throughout
the season. And if he does leave the stage, possible successors range from
Red Bull team principal Christian Horner, anointed as Ecclestone’s successor
by the man himself, to former Sainsbury’s chief executive Justin King, to a
more committee-led structure. Whatever that future is, it could have
enormous ramifications for how the sport is run, and where it travels to for
races, largely because Ecclestone handles deals so personally.
It is also a year which could impact on the fortunes of some of the biggest
names. Some drivers could claw themselves into the elite group – which on
form you would say includes Sebastian Vettel, Lewis Hamilton, Fernando
Alonso, and possibly Kimi Raikkonen – while some could slip from the sport’s
highest echelons.
The battle between Hamilton and Nico Rosberg for supremacy at Mercedes will be
fascinating. If paddock wisdom holds any truth, then it might be the German
who adapts best to a formula which has shifted the balance in the direction
of intelligence rather than raw speed; an idea which Hamilton firmly
rebuffed this week.
Will Hamilton be remembered as a driver of immense natural talent and
aggression, simply born in the wrong era? Or will he claim his second world
title, six years on from his first, and finally take his place among the
sport’s greats? This year should at the very least start to give us an
answer.
The dynamic at Ferrari between Alonso and Raikkonen will also help to shape the narrative of their respective careers. Ferrari, who admit they have
catching up to do, have jettisoned their preferred model of number one and
two drivers in favour of placing two world champions in the same team. If
both are in the title hunt, then how the political Spaniard and the more
unflappable Finn handle being in direct competition will leave a lasting
impression.
For the teams, 2014 has already provoked the jumbling of the pecking order.
Red Bull could be left with their hands tied by an uncompetitive engine.
Meanwhile, after an apparently inspired switch from Renault to Mercedes power,
Williams could make a long overdue return to the front, at least in the
early part of the season before the inevitable development race gathers
pace.
On the financial side too, Jean Todt, the FIA president, is adamant a cost cap
of some description will be agreed this year. Consensus may be hard to find,
however, particularly given Ron Dennis’s claim that a cap is “pie in the
sky” on his return to the fray at McLaren.
The scale of the change this season may be overplayed. But more than anything
else, Formula One is unpredictable again.